Saturday, April 7, 2012

Final exam information

The final exam is read and the point breakdown is as follows:

63% short answer
22% multiple choice
12% matching and ranking
3% fill in the blank

The subjects that will be covered will be:

24% energy mix (putting everything together)
18% coal
7% offshore oil production and the Deep Water Horizon Disaster
6% diamonds and Blood Diamonds BP
6% risk assessment
6% hydroelectric/dams
6% petroleum geochemistry
5% Plundered Planet
5% other
4% energy mix- Dominion
4% energy mix- USA
3% Yellow Dirt
3% Keystone XL pipeline
3% misc. petroleum

The exam should be challenging (I hope) and slightly to moderately shorter than the mid-term. If you have any questions, let me know, otherwise, I will plan on seeing many of you Tuesday at 3:00pm.

Friday, April 6, 2012

Lecture 35 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. How is understanding the current world population and expected growth, the relationship between per capita energy use and HDI, and HDI and ecological footprint essential to understanding how humans use resources at unsustainable rates?

2. What are the nine sources of energy listed on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory? What are the three largest sources of energy? What are the two major uses of energy? How are the sources of energy split between the two major uses of energy? How much electricity does the US import (net)? What is the approximate % loss of energy throughout the system from start to finish?

3. What factors drive our current energy portfolio (ei why petroleum, natural gas, and coal)? Why highly concentrated energy particularly important ot the transportation sector? Does the US have large reserves of petroleum, natural gas, or coal? What is a reserve? How does US oil production stack up on the world scene? How does the number of producing oil wells stack up on the world scene? Is the US a major producer of coal and/or natural gas? How does current US production of oil relate to production in the past several decades? What is institutional inertia? How does institutional inertia determine (at least partially) our current energy portfolio?

4. What factors drive current interest and potential future increases in alternative energy? How does the current volatility, current high market price, and foreseeably high market price for petroleum increase interest in alternative fuel sources? How has the is the cost of production domestic petroleum production changed in recent years? How is the cost of production domestic petroleum production expected to change in the future? What does Prof. Low mean by "sourcing concerns" when talking about petroleum? Why is this an issue in determining our future energy mix? What are the major pollutants that are emitted during the combustion of fossil fuels? How are do the pollutants differ based on the fuel (petroleum, natural gas, coal) used? What new regulations have just been implemented that might have an effect on the nation's future energy portfolio? How does the push toward a more sustainable society drive current interest and potential future increases in alternative energy?

5. What is the utility of dividing electricity generation sources into baseload, peakers, uncontrollable and predictable and uncontrollable and unpredictable? How to biomass, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, natural gas, tidal, geothermal, solar thermal, solar PV, and wind fit into these categories?

6. Why is there so little room for large improvements on the generation side of the energy equation?

7. Why is it difficult to compare the environmental, social, and human health consequences of different mechanisms of generating energy?

8. Why is it important to consider the end use of at the generation stage for certain situations? Why is it relatively rare that our systems actually do this. What are some of specific examples of particularly good generation-consumption fits?

9. What is a fuel cell, how does a fuel cell work, and why do you look foolish if you say or insinuate that fuel cells generate energy?

10. What is "the grid"? A shift from less sustainable, traditional baseload and peaker plants to more sustainable uncontrollable and unpredictable will require what changes in "the grid"?

11. What is general anthropomorphized attitude of the American electricity consumer? Why is it important to understand the requirements of electricity generation and distribution? What is a "smart grid"? What specific improvements to existing grid infrastructure will be required to meet the needs of a uncontrollable sustainable energy generation mixes? Which of these challenges will be easier (or harder) to accommodate in the near future?

12. When considering a holistic approach to energy, why is minimizing energy conversion important? How can energy infrastructure be redesigned to address the increasing use of electronic devices that run on direct current? What are examples of directly using mechanical energy to do work instead of using mechanical energy to generate electricity which can then be used to do work?

13. What is co-generation? What is an example of co-generation?

14. What are some examples of "low-hanging fruit" that could be used to reduce energy consumption? What are some examples of the "high-hanging fruit" that could be used to reduce our energy consumption?

Slides from lecture are on Sakai. I will post information on the final exam once I finish writing it.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Book Review

Your critical review of your book project book should contain the following:

1. a brief summary of the themes explored in the book

2. a comment on what you think the author did well

3. a comment on what you think the author did poorly

4. a comment on whether, after having seen the presentations by the other two book groups, you are happy with your original choice or whether you think that the you would have benefited more from reading one of the other books

You should be able to accomplish this in not much more than 600-800 words which, I am told*, is the length of a New York Times book review.

*thanks, Lauren

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Reading assignemnt for Friday

Your reading assignment for Friday is U.S. Department of Defense & Renewable Energy: An Industry Helping the Military Meet Its Strategic Energy Objectives.

Yellow Dirt Project Blog Summary

The Fundamentals from Yellow Dirt
-Written by Judy Pasternak
- Most of book takes place in 1940s during WWII and throughout Cold War
-Tells the story of government’s desperate push for more nuclear weapons
- Needed uranium extracted from mine on Navajo land
- Story of Navajo tribe that labored in mine and the subsequent health issues
- Vanadium Company of America (VCA)- mined for vanadium—element that was crucial to the construction of armor plates for warships
-Every 6 pounds of vanadium harvested from carnotite yielded one pound of harvested uranium
- At first uranium secretly sold to U.S. gov’t to support Manhattan Project
- Central focus of book tells the story of the betrayal of Navajo land and people by mining companies and U.S. gov’t
- Despite apparent health effects of uranium, the government still allowed the employment of Navajo people to work on mines
- Practices continued throughout Cold War until end of 20th century due to the demand for atomic bombs at this time
- Effects on Navajo people
- Thousands of Navajo miners worked in mines unprotected despite the warnings from physicians and scientists
- Uranium dust not only affected miners but entire Navajo community due to it contaminated air, soil and water—these findings were presented to government
- Radioactive “yellow dirt” found in Navajo drinking sources, walls and floors, playgrounds, homes and buildings, and garbage dumps. Navajo people still affected by the mining and many deaths can still be attributed to uranium mining in area.

Uranium
— Different grades of Uranium ore
-Very High-grade = 200,000 ppm Uranium (20% U)
- High – grade = 20,000 ppm Uranium (2% U)
- Low-grade = 1,000 ppm Uranium (0.1% U)
- 85 % of Uranium is hydrothermal

The Navajo Culture
- Diné- the name the Navajo call themselves. Means “The People”
- Dinétah = The Navajo Land
- Currently largest federally recognized tribe with 300,048 members
- Reservation is the largest Indian reservation in the United States
- Migrated from Canada, settled near Pueblo people
- Healing: Medicine men = Hatalii
- Believed that violation of taboos causes ailments
- Ceremonies usually last at least 4 days
Politics
- Radium discovered and mined with vanadium in 1910’s and 1920’s
- Used in Marie Curie’s experiments of fluorescence and patent medicines
- Vanadium used to strengthen ship hulls during and after WWI
- Peruvian mine slowing production for VCA by 1931—forced to move to Navajo reservation
- Uranium = a known waste product of Vanadium refining
- Domestic production 1938 of vanadium/uranium = 70,000 tons in 1948; by 1956 = 3,000,000 tons
- October 28, 1957- “We have arrived at the point where it is no longer in the interest of the federal government to expand the production of uranium concentrates”

Chemistry
- Nuclear reaction—change in the nucleus of an atom; emission of radiation
- 1896—discovery of radioactivity in Uranium salts by Henri Becquerel and Marie Curie
-Uranium that remains outside the body is much less harmful than uranium that is inhaled or swallowed
- Long-term intakes of uranium isotopes in food, water, or air can lead to internal irradiation and chemical toxicity, increased cancer risk, and liver damage

Radon
- Inhalation is the main means of entry of radon into our bodies
- Lung cancer and other pulmonary diseases are the main diseases from radon exposure
- Other forms of cancer also prevalent in uranium miners
- Birth defects in Navajo babies during uranium mining were 2 to 8 times higher than national average

Current Domestic Nuclear Situation
- U.S. is the world’s third largest producer of nuclear power
- 2010: U.S. had 104 reactors that produced 807 billion kWh (20% of electrical output)
- Four to six new nuclear reactors expected to be built by 2020
- No new constructed has occurred since 1977
- Since 1970s U.S. has dramatically improved safety and operational performance
- Net capacity is now 90% and safety standards exceed targets
- Exelon- largest U.S. operator—has plans to update most of reactor fleet to provide the equivalent of one new reactor by 2017
-September 2011—Nuclear Regulatory Commission extended 71 reactors w/ more applications for extensions expected in 2014
- The Energy Policy Act in 2005 provided much needed funding for nuclear power
- Tax credits and federal loan guarantees
- Incentivized 19 applications for 14 plants involving 21 reactors all over U.S.
- U.S. government has invested heavily in nuclear reactor research and development
- Particularly concerned with next generation reactor technology
- Domestic uranium production supplies about 10% of U.S. requirements for nuclear fuel
- As of 2008 U.S. uranium reserves provide a projected 23 years of uranium at current demand
- Wyoming and New Mexico lead the nation in total uranium reserves
- Together they hold roughly two-thirds of domestic uranium reserves

Monday, April 2, 2012

Lecture 33 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. Real-time, interactive wind maps of the lower 48 (like the one here), while not as useful for siting windmills or win farms, are still pretty awesome.

2. When thinking about the future evolution of electricity generation and distribution, why is it important to consider where population density is the greatest. Why are considerations of the evolution of where Americans live particularly important for the potential future of solar energy?

3.How does electricity consumption vary throughout the day? How does this variation change seasonally? Why is this relevant to discussions of electricity generation from solar energy?

4. How does an industrial-scale solar thermal electricity generation plant work? What are the two basic designs? How does residential (or commercial or small-scale industrial) solar thermal work? How is it different from industrial-scale solar thermal? What are the specific advantages and disadvantages of solar thermal?

5. How does solar PV work (ei how do solar PV panels produce electricity)? What are the four basic categories of solar PV cells? Which are currently the most efficient? Which are currently the most commonly used? Why is there a difference? What % of campus energy is supplied by our new solar PV installations on the parking deck and the Law School? Is the W&L parking garage a net producer or consumer of electricity? Where are the best places in the lower 48 to site solar resources? What are the specific advantages and disadvantages of solar thermal?

6. What are the factors that will determine whether a state will be a net importer or exporter of electricity? What is "the grid"?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. Your reading assignment for Wednesday's class is here.

Yellow Dirt Reading Assignment

Hey Guys,

On this page are two links to articles we’d like you to read before our class discussion on Wednesday. On the next page are two graphs that simply help quantify the exposure to uranium that the Navajo people are facing.

1) “Yellow Dirt”: Radioactive Reservation

This link is to an article that does a good job contextualizing “Yellow Dirt”. Be sure to click the “Continue Reading” button if the article isn’t already expanded.

http://www.salon.com/2010/09/19/yellow_dirt/

*note from Prof. Low- I would also recommend looking at Church Rock, NM (mentioned at the beginning of the article) on google maps (click below). Be sure to zoom in and look at the remaining house "footprints" that were left behind after many of the houses were removed.


View Larger Map

2) “The Cold War Threat to the Navajo”
This link is to a very short article that briefly addresses a number of the players and factors that we’ll be discussing on Wednesday. You can even listen to it with 3 different accents..

http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?sid=3f087595-29f9-46bf-a347-71c98eba4574%40sessionmgr104&vid=4&hid=126&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=a9h&AN=29377619

3) One table and one figure taken from:“Development of risk maps to minimize uranium exposures in the Navajo Churchrock mining district”
By:Jamie L deLemos

Full article available here: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2714847/

Figure 3: Percent of participants hauling water from unregulated source, regulated source, and groceries.

*Primary, secondary, and tertiary hauling sources are the first three water sources reported by participants in the survey. N = number of participants that use a primary, secondary, and tertiary source.

Table 2: Environmental history self-reported by survey participants.

Friday, March 30, 2012

Lecture 32 Summary and Notes

Some question for the day...

1. What does the KPCS's data suggest about its own inadequacy to provide transparency in diamond sourcing?

2. According to the EIA AEO 2011, most new electricity power generation capacity between 2010 and 2015 is expected to come from what type what source? What about 2020-2035?

3. What is tidal generation? What are the to basic types of tidal generation plants and how do they work? Given the current location of operating tidal generation infrastructure, what are the characteristics that you would look for when siting future tidal projects? What are the advantages and disadvantages of tidal power? Why is there so little tidal power generation throughout the world right now? When it comes to electricity generation, what is the difference between controllability and predictability? Which is more difficult to accommodate?

4. What are the advantages and disadvantages specific to wind-powered electricity generation? When a renewable/alternative/green energy generation method is described as non-polluting, what does this mean? Why is time scale important in discussions about the predictability of electricity generation technologies such as wind and solar? Why are aesthetic arguments against wind power misguided (at least according to Prof. Low)? Should the Washington Monument be removed to prevent bird deaths? What are some of the specific considerations that you would make when siting a windmill or windfarm? Why are distribution and transmission important considerations? What does the EIA AEO 2011 say about expected growth in wind power in the next few decades?

5. What does the EIA AEO 2011 say about expected growth in geothermal power in the next few decades? What are some of the advantages and disadvantages specific to geothermal power? How does a geothermal plant work? What specific characteristics of the subsurface geology are required for geothermal plant to work well? Where (geologically and geographically) would you expect to find these conditions?

For Monday, please read How many gallons of gasoline would it take to charge an iPhone?, a December 14, 2011 post by Ken Cohen on ExxonMobil's Perspectives blog and Natural Gas Vehicles Driven to Outpace Oil by Ken Silverstein in Forbes.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Lecture 31 Summary and Notes

From the Plundered Planet Book Group...

Plundered Planet Paul Collier

General message:
How to use natural assets: nature + technology + regulation = prosperity
- Without regulation, you get plunder
- Without technology, you get hunger

The book sets out to try to solve the dilemmas that arise from natural assets in low-income countries. He writes that economics and environmental studies need each other and can be compatible.

Part I: Resource curse
Studies have found that countries with higher amounts of natural resources have slower economic growth than countries that do not; similarly, the absence of resources in democratic societies increased economic growth, and democratic countries with an abundance of resources have more economic troubles. So, are resources a curse?
It seems that resources are a curse in countries that have deeper issues. Remember the difference between Sierra Leone and Botswana and Nigeria and Norway.
countries with a comparative advantage should specialize it should use it to trade with other countries; some countries specialize in resource extraction which hinders other developments
Basically, weak or corrupt governance and non-agricultural resources make the asset of natural resources into a curse because there is no proper regulation of the extraction and distribution of natural resources.

Part II: Discovering natural assets
Natural assets lack owners so they can be plundered more easily. Collier divides the world into four quadrants: OECD: Russia/China/satellite nations; Emerging economies; Countries of the bottom billion
What is surprising about the poorer countries is that they tend to be resource-rich countries at present. This isn’t because the land has a greater amount of natural resources (because Africa was not naturally endowed with as many subsoil resources). The difference is that richer countries have been extracting resources for a longer period of time.
Collier highlights that for the bottom billion it is important to think of assets are an opportunity
Problems with natural assets in these countries:
- Tend to be located disproportionately in “difficult” territories
- Only ¼ of natural assets have been discovered in the botton bill compared to rich countries which means something mustve gone wrong
- Discovering what’s underground = EXPENSIVE
Collier’s solution: think of searching for assets as a public good
- Best to allow one entity to make search, let foreign enterprise perform the search b/c it’s so expensive (or even donors like the World Bank or the IMF and these donors could help multiple countries but it’s hard to get them to do this b/c they want to do more “picturesque” jobs like schools)
- Make geological info available as a public good
- Info clarifies what the resources/geological territories are worth so the gov can know how to sell these plots of land

Part III: Capturing Natural Assets
The problems that arise in the phase of capturing natural assets are corruption and underdevelopment.
- Corruption: extraction/discovery relies on extraction companies and the government to get revenues from resources to the country/its people
- Underdevelopment: revenue isn’t used domestically so the country can’t be improved and there is no increase in money in their market
Collier’s solutions:
- Transparency is needed when discovering resources (publish what you pay/EITI)
- Auction off rights to the resources (4 companies competing, will get true value of the resources, eliminates asymmetric info problem)
Extra hindrance:
- Taxes create problems: inefficiency in government and economy; creates uncertainty for companies who want to extract resources; companies try to dodge funky taxes which hurts the country’s revenue
o Contingencies: try to solve inefficiency; agree on a system of taxes ahead of time
o Royalties: reduces asymmetric info; tax on revenue
Overall solution Government should use tax structure w/ contingencies; transparency of companies and government; use royalties b/c they are observable (should be in tax code); legally-binding tax code

Part IV: Selling the Family Silver
Problem: How do we make sure the revenues are being used within the country (benefit future and present generations)
- Governments must balance consumption and savings
- Try to sustain economy with sustainable infrastructure rather than depleting resources
Solution: yield rate of return while the asset is still in the ground
- At what rate should we spend, save, invest (domestically and abroad)
o Norway invest 100% into capital markets and consume less at the beginning of extraction of natural resources
o Ghana spent too early and too much once they discovered early
o Boom and bust cycles: use savings in bust cycles; save a lot during boom cycles
o Long-term infrastructure deals are good but they should be made public for rights to resource extraction

Part V: Investing in Investing
- Most difficult part, but also must important
- Invest in public goods
o Get rid of corruption/ improve management of investment
o Need to promote big-scale projects
- Encourage private investment
o Lessens risk on government
o Mobility in market
- Lower price of capital goods
o Suggests trying to reach trade agreements with other countries or partnering with neighboring countries
- Use examples like Botswana and Malaysia rather than Norway

Slides are on Sakai. For Friday, please read A Measured Rebuttal to China Over Solar Panels by Keith Bradsher and Matther Wald published in the March 20, 2012 edition of the New York Times.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Lecture 30 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. What are the two different types of diamond deposits? How do they differ from the viewpoint of a prospector? How does the morphology of the mine differ based on type of deposit? Which type of deposit depends on the high density of diamonds relative to most other common crustal materials?

2. What is the evidence that there has been a kimberlite eruption in Rockbridge County? How can you be certain that this kimberlite is not diamondiferous?

3. What is unique/special about the formation processes, physical properties, and societal valuation of diamonds out of all of the gems, and other MSI that we have and will discuss in this class?

4. How has the advertising of diamonds evolved since the origin of the "A Diamond is forever" campaign in the late 1940s. How is the marketing/advertising of diamonds an example of a manufactured desire? How does the role of a diamond in the US engagement ritual factor in this manufactured desire? What was the average retail price for a diamond engagement ring in 2011? What is the "standard" equation used in the the calculation of how much should be spent on a diamond engagement ring? Who created this standard and why was the standard created in the first place? According to www.engagementringcalculator.com, will a proposal in which one (or more) parties is pregnant require a more or less expensive ring?

5. What are the 4 Cs? How do two of the Cs describe the composition of the diamond at different scales? How has the inflation-adjusted, wholesale price per carat changed over the past 50 years? What is the current wholesale price for a 1.00 carat, colorless (D), internally flawless, brilliant (round) cut diamond? What about the retail price for the same diamond?

6. What is the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme? What was the reason that Global Witness cited for leaving the Kimberly Process in late 2011?

7. What are conflict diamonds? Why are conflict diamonds an American problem? According to the WDC, what percent of blood diamonds currently come from conflict zones? According to the UN, what percent of blood diamonds currently come from conflict zones? Why is there such a wide gulf in between these two estimates? What were the respective roles of Sierra Leone and Liberia in the diamonds that helped to fund the WTC attacks on 9/11? Why are the DRC and Zimbabwe considered two potential sources for conflict/illegally traded diamonds? What are some of the things that you should look for when trying to source (or avoid sourcing) smuggled diamonds?

8. Is the statement by World Diamond Counsel chairman Eli Izhakoff that the industry knew nothing of the conflict-diamond trade until 1999-2000 indicative of willful deceit or stunning incompetence?

9. Can you use smuggleability in a sentence?

Slides are on Sakai. Please read Colin Tudge's review of The Plundered Planet, By Paul Collier in the Friday 09 July 2010 edition of the Independent for Wednesday's lecture presentation by the Plundered Planet Book Group.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Lecture 29 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. How do diamonds form? Specifically, what combination of events are required for diamonds to exist at Earth's surface?

2. What are the differences between the carbon polymorphs (graphite and diamond) in terms of physical properties such as density and hardness, type of chemical bonds present, coordination polyhedra for carbon?

3. What is the stability region of diamond in PT space/ Why does diamond turn into graphite during normal upwards mantle convection? Why is the mantle beneath ancient cratons suc a good place to form so many of the diamond that evetually make their way to the surface of the Earth? What is a kimberlite pipe? How is a kimberlite eruption different from a "normal" volcanic eruption?

4. How long ago were most diamonds found near the Earth's surface formed? How long ago did most preserved kimberltie eruptions occur? Why is it interesting that there is a huge gap in between the respective time periods?

5. What does LLSVP stand for? Can you use LLSVP in a sentence? Why do we care about the shear wave velocity of the lower mantle? Why is it interesting that there was a large LLSVP underneath the diamond-bearing portions of Africa?

6. Two recent (2011) papers have discussed the isotopic composition of diamonds and mineral inclusions in diamonds. While not necessarily presenting information on how most diamonds form, what interesting observations and conclusions where these papers able to make?

Slides from lecture are on Sakai...

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Lecture 28 Summary and Notes

Blood Diamonds Presentation- Key points from the lecture (summarized by J Jimenez)

Five important themes
1. How and where diamonds form
2. Diamond industry and production
3. Civil War in Sierra Leone and origins of “Blood Diamonds”
4. World response to war and blood diamond trafficking

You should be familiar with the following:

>> The four ways diamonds can form
1. Through volcanic eruptions and rise to the surface at rapid speeds through kimberlite pipes
2. In subduction zones
3. When an asteroid strikes Earth
4. Nanodiamonds form on meteorites in space when they collide
a. All these processes require carbon rich material, high heat, and high pressure

>>The five characteristics of a diamond
1. Most durable mineral
2. Highly stable bonds
3. Hardest mineral
4. High thermal conductivity
5. Cubic crystal system
*Note that diamonds come in different colors depending on the minerals they mix with.

>>Where diamonds are in the world generally
1. Can you name the top diamond producing countries? Answer: (Botswana, Russia, Angola, Canada, Congo, South Africa….)
2. Do you know the names of the major diamond mines? Answer: (Orapa Mine, Argyle Mine, and the Kimberley Mine)

>> The mining pipeline
1. What are the stages of the mining pipeline? Answer: (Exploration, mining, sorting, cutting & polishing, jewelry manufacturing, and retailing)
2. What are the most common mining methods of diamonds? Answer: (Open pit mining, underground mining, coastal and inland (alluvial) mining, and marine mining)
*You should be able to briefly describe these different mining methods
3. What are the main uses of diamonds? Answer: (30% used for jewelry & 70% for industrial purposes)
4. What is the Kimberly process? (Answer: this is part of your homework assignment, but in general it is a certification process to regulate the import/export of rough diamonds and is a mandated by the United Nations with the goal of keeping out conflict diamonds in trade)

>> Civil War in Sierra Leone
1. What sides are at war? Answer: (Different groups at different times, but the main actors include the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), the Sierra Leone Army (SLA), and the United Nation’s UNAMSIL—the UN’s largest and most expensive deployment of United Nations Peacekeepers in history.

A homework assignment was handed out at the end of class and is due Monday, March 26th. Also, there will be a quiz this Friday, March 23rd on the lecture and the reading assignment.

Check back on Thursday for Friday's reading assignment.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Lecture 27 Summary and Notes

We began our lecture today with some excerpts from Marc Reisners Cadillac Desert. I hope that this gave you some appreciation of:

a. the vast effect of dams on the American landscape (particularly in the American West)
b. the importance of US hydroelectric power generation not only in our modern energy portfolio but also in the development American and even world history
c. some of the working conditions that were endured during the construction of some of the major public works project that still provide us with some of our energy needs decades later

Some questions for the day...

1. What is the great American dam? What is the largest American dam? What external forces helped to allow for the construction of the Hoover Dam in only three years? What external forces allowed the projected surplus power generation from the Grand Coulee Dam to be consumed decades before predicted? When did dam construction in the USA peak? What was going on at the Hanford Reservation that required so much power? What is the one thing that humans can do to a river that nature cannot undo? What river is "like a forty-pound wolverine that can drive a bear off its dinner"?

2. Do hydroelectric dams function as base load or peaker plants? What are the relative capital and operating costs of a hydroelectric facility vs. a coal or natural gas plant? Is there room for expansion for hydroelectric facilities in the USA? What about the world? What is the average life of a North American dam (according to the American Society of Civil Engineers)? How does this "lifespan" bode for existing US hydroelectric infrastructure? How are dams responsible for the flux of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere?

3. How does the EROEI of a dam (or any power plant, for that matter) change as a function of time?

4. What is river-basin "accounting"? Who "pays the bills" in river-basin "accounting"? What use(s) get(s) subsidized in river-basin "accounting"? Why is river-basin "accounting" important in the construction of large hydroelectric projects like those in the American West?

5. What is a pump storage plant (PSP)? How does a PSP work? How is a PSP different from a "normal" hydroelectric dam?

Slides shown in lecture today are on Sakai. Excerpts from Cadillac Desert are also on Sakai (Cadillac Desert.pdf). Your reading assignment for Wednesday is the first three sections of How the African Diamond Trade Works by Alia Hoyt

Friday, March 16, 2012

Lecture 26 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. What is CCS? What is the difference between carbon capture and carbon sequestration? Which of the two is easier? What will implementing CCS technology have on the efficiency (EROEI) of fossil fuel-burning thermal electricity generation plants? How is carbon captured? What are the potential mechanisms for carbon sequestration? How common are plants that use CCS technology in the US? In the world? How is the electricity generating industry preparing for the implementation of CCS technology?

2. How many dams are there in the US? How many of theses dams have electricity generation as their primary stated purpose?

3. How does a hydropower plant work? What are the major factors that need to be considered when siting a dam in order to maximize the potential generating capacity? How do dams negatively affect aquatic biodiversity? What is siltation? Why is siltation a problem with all hydroelectric dams? Why is siltation a particularly bad problem for CO river dams? What are the relative capital and ongoing costs associated with hydroelectric power? What is the average generation output for large dams relative to their capacity? How does siltation affect the capacity of a dam?

4. Where are most of the large hydroelectric facilities in the US? What are the roles of the US Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation in the construction of large hydro projects?

5. In general, where are the largest hydroelectric facilities in the world located? What about the largest planned hydroelectric facilities? What countries have the largest capacity and actual production from hydroelectric facilities? How is this expected to change in the foreseeable future? Which countries have relatively large proportions of their total electricity generation portfolio coming from hydroelectric facilities?

Slide from lecture today are on Sakai. There is no reading assignment for Monday

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Lecture 25 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. What pollutants (general categories)will the new mercury standards (MATS) for US power plants regulate? Why is this new regulation significant? How many power plants are expected to retire as a result of the new regulations? What are the expected effects of the MATS on the consumer price of electricity? What are the benefits that are predicted by the EPA?

2. Coal, NG, oil, and biomass can all be used to generate steam to make electricity. What are the differences between these different combustion sources in terms of "peaking" ability, CO2 flux per unit electricity generated, potential pollutants, US reserve volume, and price?

3. What is a biogeochemical cycle? What is the carbon cycle? What are the major reservoirs of carbon in the carbon cycle? What are some of the mechanisms through which carbon move from reservoir to reservoir? How does the combustion of fossil fuels affect (disturb) the carbon cycle? Where does the carbon that used to be in fossil fuels end up after combustion? Why is more carbon in the ocean a problem? Why is more carbon in the atmosphere a problem?

4. Why is the regulation of CO2 pollution so difficult? How is our classical thinking about defining 'acceptable' risk largely inadequate for dealing with CO2 pollution? How would the predefined probability approach be applied for CO2 pollution? How would the 'currently tolerated approach to defining 'acceptable' risk be applied to CO2 pollution? How would economic approaches like cost-benefit and cost-utility analysis- particularly in a multi-risk assessment be applied for CO2 pollution? In such a scenario, who bears the cost of pollution reduction? Who benefits from risk reduction related to pollution reduction?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. Please read New Solar-Energy System Generating Power at W&L by Jeff Hanna for Friday's class.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Lecture 24 Summary and Notes

Some important questions for the day...

1. What were the biggest external life cycle costs associated with coal in Epstein et al., 2011. Are the cost spread more toward coal mining, transportation, or combustion? If these costs were included, what would the effect on the price of coal (measured in cents per kilowatt hour) be? How is the cost of climate change due to CO2 and CM4 emissions monetized relative to the cost of climate change due to coal combustion-related particulate matter? How is the cost of climate change due to due to combustion-related particulate matter monetized relative to the cost of emissions of combustion-related air pollution?

2. What are the major fuel types used in the generation of US electricity right now ("right now" = 2011)? How has this changed from 2010? What factors have shaped that change?

3. What are the major fuel types used in the Dominion electricity generation mix right now ("right now" = 2011)? How is the actual mix different from the full capacity mix?

4. What are the mix of operating and planned electricity generating plants operated by Dominion?

5. How does a thermal electricity generating facility (like a coal-fired power plant) work? How does a steam turbine work? What are the steps required to convert heat energy into mechanical energy and then into electrical energy? What is electricity? Why do metallically-bonded materials tend to have higher electrical conductivity than ionically or covalently bonded materials? What is the difference between AC and DC power?

6. How does the equipment used to remove NOx, SOx, and PM2.5 from the coal combustion waste stream differ? What is a "scrubber"? How does a scrubber work?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. Please read Calamity on the Colorado by James Powell (photographs by Peter M. McBride) published in the July/August 2010 issue of Orion magazine



For class on Wednesday.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Lecture 23 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. How to the predefined probability approach, the currently tolerated approach, and the economic approach (cost-benefit analysis and cost-utility analysis) differ as mechanisms for determining acceptable risk? What is a historic example of a cost-benefit analysis that demonstrated the economic savings of risk reduction outweighing the cost of intervention? How does cost-benefit analysis work when more than one risk or potential risk is present? In a cost-benefit analysis, who generally pays for the costs associated with failure to reduce a risk; in the same system, who generally benefits from the failure to reduce a risk? What is VSL? How does VSL figure in to calculating risk of some behavior? What is a modern estimate for VSL (American, not too old)? According to the WHO, when is a risk acceptable?

2. What is a life cycle analysis? What is full cost accounting? What are externalities and and how does their exclusion from economic transactions distort the decision-making processes?

3. What is average price of coal as an energy source (cents per kilowatt hour? How does this price compare with electricity that has been generated from other sources? How would full cost accounting (adding in all of the “externalities” ei costs are external to the coal industry) affect the price of electricity produced from coal coal combustion?

4. What are the most common coal combustion products (both gasses and solids)?

5. How common are acute coal mining related deaths in the USA (over the past 30 years)? How has this changed from 100 years ago? What combination of factors have been responsible for these changes? 6. How do acute mining deaths in the US compare with those over the past decade or so in China?

Slides from today's lecture are on Sakai and the data file for HW 8 is on Sakai and there are additional copies of the assignment tacked to my bulletin board if you missed class today. We will continue with coal on Monday with a further look into the waste stream of coal, a discussion of how electricity is generated from coal, how pollution control technology works, how recently adopted regulations by the EPA are affecting the viability of coal-fired power plants in the USA, and how burning fossil fuels such as coal affects the global carbon cycle. For Monday, please read Utilities announce closure of 10 aging power plants in Midwest, East by Juliet Eilperin published in the February 29 edition of the Washington Post and Christian environmental group says the EPA's new rules on mercury pollution is a pro-life issue by Jim Harger in the December 03, 2011 edition of the The Grand Rapids Press.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Lecture 22 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day:

1. How do valley fills affect the runoff ratio in a watershed? How are flood peaks different in watersheds with more valley fill area? How does the physiography and the resulting way the West Virginians inhabit the landscape amplify flooding hazards?

2. What are the characteristics of mineable (either underground of surface) coal reserves? What are the techniques that are important in coal prospecting? Why are their so few coal geologists right now?

3. How is coal mined? What must be considered when mining an underground coal seam?

4. How and where is coal processed? Why does coal need to be proceeded (why can't it just be shipped directly from the mine to the power plant? How is coal separated from silicate material? What happens to the silicate waste material? Why is the disposal of silicate mine waste a problem in Appalachia?

5. How is environmental risk assessed? What factors need to be considered?

6. How do "we" decide the level of acceptable risk? What is the "standard" for acceptable risk using a predefined probability approach to risk definition? Who (and WHO) uses the 1 in 1 million standard? What does "1 in 1 million" mean? How do the current regulatory limits for Arsenic (As) in drinking water (USEPA or WHO) fit with the general risk goals of the regulatory community? Given the answer to the last question, is it safe to say that practical (ei economic) considerations also go into establishing current regulatory limits? What does the initiallism MCL stand for?

Slides from today are up on Sakai. Friday, we will look further into risk assessment and mitigation and recent efforts to address the waste stream of coal mining and combustion. There is no new reading assignment for Friday.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Lecture 21 Summary and Notes

Some questions for the day...

1. How does coal rank vary from North to South in West Virginia. How does the geospatial variation in coal rank in WV demonstrate the expected progression of coal composition with increasing P and T?

2. What is science? What is the scientific method? What is the difference between peer-reviewed scientific literature and mainstream literature? What are the essential components of a scientific paper?

3. What are the top coal producing states in the USA? What is the general geographic distribution of states whose production is dominated by surface mining vs. states whose production is dominated by underground mining?

4. How has the productivity (measured in the mass of coal that an employee can produce in an hour) of coal mining changed over the past 50 years? How does productivity vary east vs. west of the Mississippi? How does productivity vary surface vs. underground? How would you describe the area (east vs west) and mining method (surface vs underground) that is most productive?

5. Increases in productivity means less employees are required... What % of West Virginians are currently employed by coal mining companies? How has this changed in the past 30 years

6. What is a watershed? At what level of anthropogenic disturbance will stream biodiversity and water quality suffer? Below valley fills in the central Appalachians, streams are characterized by geochemical characteristics? What is conductivity? How is conductivity used to estimate water quality? What is the effect of increasing conductivity (and increasing dissolved material) on stream biodiversity?

7. What are the effects of MTR/VF mining on the hydrologic characteristics of watershed? What are nested watersheds? How do flood crests differ in nested watersheds? How to flood crests differ in watersheds with large amounts of urbanization or changes in surface characteristics due to MTR/VF?

Slides from today are up on Sakai. Wednesday, we will continue our discussion of coal with a look at coal mining trends in Appalachia and beyhond. There is no new reading assignment for Wednesday.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Lecture 20 Summary and Notes

Some questions to ponder...

1. What are the differences between the source material for coal vs. petroleum in terms of the source of the source material and its relative C, H, and O.

2. Of the organic molecules, cellulose, lignin, cutin, suberin, and algaenen, plants are mostly____________.

3. Coal is classified according to rank. What are the ranks, how do they differ in terms of their composition (with regard to their carbon content and their volatile content), their physical characteristics, and their temperature and pressure (depth) of equilibration? For instance, how deep does bituminous coal need to be buried in order to form anthracite?

4. What are the compositional characteristics that are optimal for thermal coal? How do the compositional characteristics that are optimal for metallurgical coal differ?

5. As coal rank increases, what happens to the volume of natural gas generated, the pore space volume, and the tenancy for natural gas to segregate from the coal?

6. What are the major and minor elements present in coal? Which of those elements come from the plant material and which some from geologic material?

7. In general, what is the geographic and age distribution of world coal resources?

8. Is Saudi Arabia the Saudi Arabia of oil? Is the US the Saudi Arabia of coal? How does coal production in the US compare to production in China? How does the reserve life of China's reserves compare that of the US? Who is the Saudi Arabia of chicken?

Do not forget the homework assignment for Monday: Complete the following sentence:

_____________ is the Saudi Arabia of _________________.

submissions should be:
-true
-related to economic geology* (optional)
-not about any particular member of the W&L community
-G- or PG- rated
-submitted via email before 10 am Monday March 5th

5 point for completion with +1 for unique response 2 quiz points for peoples' choice (class vote) and 2 quiz points for critic's choice (my favorite).

Slides from today are up on Sakai. Monday, we will continue our discussion of coal with a look at coal mining trends in Appalachia. Your reading assignment for Monday will be Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal by Epstein et al. (2011) in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. This is a longer article...

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Lecture 19 Summary and Notes

Some questions to ponder...

1. How does the Deepwater Horizon Disaster (DHD) compare to historic unscheduled and scheduled releases of oil into the environment?

2. What was special about the Deepwater Horizon before it exploded?

3. Why did the Deepwater Horizon fly a Marshallese flag?

4. What series of events contributed to the blowout and eventual unscheduled release? How is it possible that BP, Transocean, Haliburton, Cameron, Anadarko, MOEX (MOECO), and Weatherford were all (potentially) liable in the DWD?

5. What was the rate of discharge from the well during the release? How did the reported discharge change as a function of time? How did the actual discharge change as a function of time? Why was it so difficult to estimate the discharge of the spill? What are the potential incentives to underestimate the discharge and total volume of the spill?

6. What happened to all of the oil?

7. How much money does BP estimate the spill will cost? How has money been already spent? Where is BP getting (some of) the money that will go into operational response and compensatory funds?

8. What are some of the recent developments in offshore drilling in and around the USA (in Cuba, AK, and along the border between the EEZs of the USA and Mexico?)

Slides from today are up on Sakai. Tomorrow, we will begin our discussion of coal. Your reading assignment for Friday is Mountaintop Mining Consequences by Palmer et al. (2010) from Science Magazine. Also, our reading assignment for Monday will be Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal by Epstein et al. (2011) in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. This is a longer article and so I wanted to get it to you with plenty of lead time.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Lecture 18 Summary and Notes

After getting through the recent exam and homework, some questions for the day...

1. How will the EU Fuel Quality Directive affect the use of the Canadian tar sands? Why is oil derived from tar sands viewed differently than oil from other sources by the EU Fuel Quality Directive.

2. Judges have recently ruled on fracking cases in Dryden and Middlefield, NY. In whose favor were these rulings? How is this different from recent developments in PA and WV?

3. What specific portions of the ocean have reasonable potential for petroleum reserves?

4. In general, would most offshore reserves be classified as large or small; conventional or unconventional?

5. Where are the high concentrations of offshore platforms right now?

6. Is the US population generally in support of or against increasing offshore drilling? How has this changed over time?

7. What are some of the problems associated with offshore drilling (not just related to massive spills like the Deepwater Horizon Disaster)?

8. What are some of the mitigation and clean-up strategies associated with oceanic oil spills such as the Deepwater Horizon Disaster?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. Wednesday, we will finish with offshore petroleum with a closer look at the Deepwater Horizon Disaster and some recent developments in the regulation of offshore activities in US waters. Please read BP Spill Victims Face Economic Fallout Two Years Later by Allen Johnson Jr., Laurel Calkins and Margaret Cronin Fisk published February 23, 2012 in Bloomberg.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Lecture 17 Summary and Notes

Some questions from today's lecture...

1. What important announcements regarding the KXL pipeline were contained in their recent earnings report (released on Tuesday, February 14th)?

2. What were the findings of the 2008 CARA report from the USGS? How was the appraisal conducted? What are the differences between discovered and undiscovered resources? Are these resources of reserves? Where are the big oil discoveries (or undiscoveries?) expected?

3. How have the findings of reports like the CARA affected Greenland?

4. Offshore petroleum exploration and drilling is more expensive than inshore but it expected to be a major (and growing) component of US and world petroleum production in the near future. What are the geologic limitations of off shore drilling (ei why can't you drill in the middle of the ocean and expect to get oil or natural gas)?

5. How have the laws regarding "who owns the sea" changed historically in response to humanity's ability to (and desire to) exploit off shore petroleum reserves?

6. What two environmental disasters in 1969 helped the reorganization and expansion of what would become the Clean Water Act and turned many Americans against off shore oil production? What role did the rate of domestic production in the late 1960s/early 1970s play in this anti-offshore sentiment? What are the current restrictions on offshore exploration and productions in the USA? How are these restrictions expected to change in the near future?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. I will begin grading your exams soon and send out an email when they ready. For break, remember to 1. read your book group book and 2. do your Feb Break homework assignment. Have a great break.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Lecture 16 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

What is the big deal about the about the Keystone XL pipeline? Is it just another pipeline? Why are people protesting the construction of the pipeline? How many jobs will construction of the pipeline create (direct, indirect, temporary, and permanent)? How has the proposed pipeline been portrayed in the media? Are Americans generally for or against construction of the pipeline? What is the general location of the proposed pipeline? Are there other pipelines in this area? Is this the first Canada-US trans border pipeline? What is the Oglalla aquifer? Why are groundwater resources particularly valuable in the area atop the Oglalla aquifer? How common are "major" pipeline incidents? What are the historic trends in pipeline construction in the USA? How common are fatal accidents for truck carrying petroleum products? What are the advantages and disadvantages of pipelines? Why is it difficult to compare the relative dangers of pipelines and trucks? What is the likelihood of KXL oil being exported to non-US markets? What does fungible mean? Do individual consumers have the ability to choose where their petroleum products come from? How would the KXL pipeline affect this? Where is Canada? How did investors in TransCanada react to the Jan 18th decision by Obama to "reject" the KXL pipeline? What is the future of the KXL pipeline?

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. Your reading assignment for Friday is U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2008-3049: Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle (.pdf) by Bird et al.

Also, the homework assignment for Feb Break is available on Sakai.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Lecture 15 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. There is an exam this week.

2. Apparently, no one wants to develop the Lewis Shale.

3. PA has a new (less than a week old) fracking law that clearly overrides municipal home rule (large cities exempt), sets a tax rate of ~2.6% (TX = 5.4%) and includes some new environmental regulations. The entire article can be found here.

4. When compared to oil from conventional sources, the production of oil from the tar sands has many characteristics make it interesting:

estimated reserve volume

geographic location

EROEI

water and CO2 pollution

Canadianess

5. EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) is a useful way to not only compare energy from different types of resources but also different reserves within an energy source. The Alberta Tar Sands have a very low EROEI compared to other sources of petroleum (particularly petroleum from Middle Eastern conventional reserves). Why?

6. "Ethical Oil" is a marketing concept that attempts to distract people from the many environmental problems associated with oil from the Alberta Tar Sands by focusing on some of the very real sociopolitical problems endemic in many non-Canadian oil exporting countries.

7. The Keystone XL pipeline will facilitate the midstream transport of oil from the tar sands to US refineries on the Gulf Coast. Wednesday, we will discuss why the KXL pipeline is such a big deal.

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. There will be no additional reading assignment for Wednesday.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Lecture 14 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. The USA is unique (or almost unique) in the world oil scene because:

a. our oil production industry was "developed" much earlier than other major producing countries

b. we import way more oil than any other country

c. we are one of the top three producers in the world but the other two are also the worlds biggest exporters

d. we have way more wells that any other nation

e. we have the refinery capacity that allows us to import more refined petroleum (like gasoline and diesel) than we import

f. our domestic production is dominated by public multinational corporations instead of wholly or partially state controlled oil companies

2. Right now, the world's two big oil exporters are KSA and Russia.

3. The interactive map from Marketplace (a daily news show about the economy on Public Radio International) provides an interesting look at historic production (and production peaks) in major producing countries from around the world.

4. The top importers to the USA over the past 38 years have been Canada, KSA, Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria (after which there is a big drop). Overall, the USA has imported oil from 120 different countries since the beginning of 1973. Of the major importing countries, imports from Canada, Mexico, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Iraq, Colombia, Kuwait, and Russia are up and imports from Canada, Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan are expected increase on into the the near future while imports from the UK, Indonesia, and Norway are down and are expected to decrease further in the near future.

5. Since Canada is our #1 importer and will be for the foreseeable future and their petroleum reserves consist mostly of the Alberta tar sands, it is essential to understand what makes the unconventional tar sands different than other petroleum reserves. Today, we looked at how synthetic crude oil is produced from mined tar sands deposits and on Monday, we will look into the controversy surrounding the exploitation of the tar sands as well as the controversy surrounding new pipeline that has been proposed to move more tar sands oil to US refineries.

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. For Monday, please read a pair of New York Times Articles on the Keystone XL Pipeline: Rejecting Pipeline Proposal, Obama Blames Congress by John Broder and Dan Frosch published January 18, 2012 and For G.O.P., Pipeline Is Central to Agenda by Jennifer Steinhauer published February 1, 2012. My thanks to T. Meric III for bringing the first article to my attention. In addition to the reading (and homework assignment), please watch the following clip from the November, 14, 2011 episode of the Cobert Report during which Stephen Cobert interviews Middlebury College Scholar in Residence and climate activist, Bill Mckibben about the Canadian tar sands and the proposed pipeline. A note to sensitive viewers- this video contains allegorical references to the "bathing suit" areas of human body. Also, if you are unfamiliar with the work of Stephen Cobert, I strongly urge you to spend a few minutes with his Wikipedia page before watching the video.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Lecture 13 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. Short-term prices of crude oil are notably affected by:
a. large-scale economic disruptions (like the late 200s resession or the European economic slowdown
b. armed conflict in the Middle East
c. changes in supply due to KSA or OPEC increasing or decreasing production
d. releases from the strategic petroleum reserve

We will get into long-term prices later.

2. The strategic petroleum reserve is a series of above- and underground storage facilities in TX and LA that have the capacity to hold 30+ days (at current consumption levels) worth of oil.

3. Increases in drilling activity for both oil and natural gas closely follow (in time) increases in the price of oil and natural gas suggesting that increases in drilling activity occur in response to increases in price.

4. Wellhead price of natural gas shows several large spikes after 2000. Prices for natural gas are more susceptible to supply disruption-related increases than oil because of our reliance on domestic production and the concentration of natural gas production facilities in the hurricane-prone GOM states.

5. There is no relationship between the price of oil or natural gas and their consumption in the US

6. Before 1996, there was a positive collection between the price of oil and the % oil oil that the US consumed that was from domestic production. After 1996, imports began to exceed domestic production and we (the US) have been stuck at ~40% domestic production regardless of the price of oil since.

7. The mismatch in the estimated reserve size that is predicted by Hubbert linearization and the actual production curve is a result in the technology and price driven changes in the reserve volume that are evident in a system that is increasingly reliant on petroleum from unconventional sources.

8. This mismatch is not as evident with world oil reserves.

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. There is no reading assignment for Wednesday.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Lecture 12 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. The Marcells Shale thickens to the East and dips to the East.

2. When estimating the size of a reserve (in the case of our discussion, an oil reserve), accuracy is difficult because:

a. subsurface geology is very complex and even if an area has been thoroughly surveyed/studied, it is difficult to know how much oil there is in place, how productive the wells will be, etc.

b. there are incentives to misrepresent oil reserves (both understating reserve volume and overstating reserve volume)

c. a reserve is, by definition, based on the volume of technically and economically recoverable oil within some defined area; therefore, the volume of a reserve changes with technological improvements and changes in price.

2. In 1956, M. King Hubbert published a method for estimating reserve volumes by looking only at production. The Hubbert Method is based on the observation that a graph of production as a function of time for an oil field is a bell-shaped curve and by looking at annual production and cumulative production in an oilfield (or country or planet) you can estimate the volume of a reserve, the timing of the peak of production, as well as future production decline rates. This production peak is the "peak" in "peak oil" which we will discuss next week. Our method for calculating the Hubbert peak uses a mathematical simplification developed by Kenneth Deffeyes.

3. There is a clear correlation between the price of natural gas and the number of active drill rigs in the US in the past 35+ years.

4. In the case of crude oil, the relationship between price and the number of active drill rigs in not as obvious. If the data are segregated temporally, however, some clear trends begin to emerge... During the time period that world crude oil prices were effectively controlled by OPEC (up to 2003), the number of active drill rigs increased slightly with increases in crude oil price. After OPEC lost control of world oil prices (after 2003), we also see an increase in the number of active wells with increasing price but now drilling activity is much more sensitive to fluctuations in the price of crude oil (small increases in price correlate with more substantial increases in the number of active drill rigs.) During the late 2000s recession, a new relationship emerged, still with a positive correlation between price and drilling but now we are seeing lots more drilling and a reduction in sensitivity.

5. OPEC is a consortium of countries that have worked together in the past to stabilize (control) the price of oil; this worked well until around 2003 and less well after that.

6. The mechanism to affect the price of a desired commodity is to control the demand (and please keep in mind that I am a geology professor, not an econ professor...) The standard supply and demand curves occupy price-time space such that they intersect at an equilibrium price and quantity (or rate of consumption. If demand remains constant (and we have good evidence that it does), then a reduction in supply will result in a reduced quantity sold at a greater price (equilibrium 2). If demand falls and the supply remains constant, then the price will decrease with a reduction in quantity (equilibrium 3)


If on the other hand, your equilibrium price is unacceptably high, you can increase the supply and a new equilibrium price (with increased quantity) will result.


In short, if you reduce the supply, the price goes up and if you increase the supply, the price comes down. Historically, the best example of this are OPEC raising and cutting production, KSA raising output, and drawdowns of the US strategic petroleum reserve. We will continue with this on Monday.

Slides from lecture today are on Sakai. For Monday, please read Scraping Bottom: Once considered too expensive, as well as too damaging to the land, exploitation of Alberta's oil sands is now a gamble worth billions by Robert Kunzig in the March, 2009 issue of National Geographic Magazine.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Lecture 11 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts and questions for the day...

1. More win-win-win from the 2012 State of the Union Address

2. An EPA report of Pavillion, WY shows frac fluid in deep monitoring wells and methane in drinking water wells- the distinction here is important

3. First 1/2 of 2011 in the PA Marcellus:

7729 permitted wells
1647 producing wells
3.6% of US production (I said 1.8% in lecture but this was a comparison of 6 months of PA Marcellus 1 year of US consumption)
lots of gas, lots of money, not very much waste...
what is the waste and where does it end up?
how do you compare oil and natural gas, anyway?

4. Fracking bans and moratoriums (or moratoria): national, state (US), local... Why is Bulgaria's ban more surprising that France's ban? How is fracking regulated at the (US) federal level? How will it (probably) be regulated in the future? What are the National and State- level bans and moratoria? What are some important/interesting local bans/moretoria? What is municipal home rule and why is it important in the discussion of fracking?

5. Estimating natural gas reserves: Is there really 100 years' worth of natural gas beneath the United States? What assumptions have to be made for our president (and anyone else to make such a statement?

Slides from lecture are on Sakai. Friday, we will finally get around to discussing Monday's HW assignment on how the price of oil drives certain behaviors and look forward to next Monday's homework on estimating oil reserves. Your reading assignment for Friday is Barrel Fever: Does anyone know how much oil there is in the world? by Yves Smith posted Wednesday, June 25, 2008 on Slate Magazine.
http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

Monday, January 30, 2012

Lecture 10 Summary and Notes

Some important topics for the day...

1. (continuing 5. from Friday) Natural gas and oil form in similar ways from similar materials in similar geologic settings but once they come out of the ground, there are some important differences:

d. oil and natural gas are consumed for different reasons- natural gas more for space heating and electricity generation and oil more for transportation; as a result, the consumption of natural gas exhibits heavy seasonal fluctuation (high use in winter)

2. At the country level, the decision to develop domestic petroleum reserves (as opposed to imported) is a win-win-win-lose (or a win-win-win-lose-win/lose).

Win 1: the American people win because they either overwhelmingly support domestic sources of energy (either explicitly or implicitly) or just don't give a (care)

Win 2: American companies win when they profit from exploiting domestic reserves make money by providing Americans with domestically produced energy

Win 3: American politicians of both major parities win when they are able to take credit for facilitating win 2

Lose: the extraction of any natural resources, even in a "best-case-scenario", damages the affected area in some way. These damages can be relatively small or catastrophic

Win/lose: those who inhabit areas with particularly intensive extractive activities can see both direct benefits and harm (economic, social, environmental)

3. Pollution can be thought of in terms of scheduled and unscheduled releases of toxic material into the environment. An unscheduled release is an accidental spill that is not part of the day-to-day routine and scheduled releases are (often) legal releases that are part of the day-to-day routine and are sometimes monitored at the local, state or federal level (as in the USEPA's TOXMAP). In order to effectively understand and describe the environmental consequences of activities with high potential for pollution, one must be able to distinguish between scheduled and unscheduled releases.

4. Why is fracking in the Marcellus shale so controversial? for one thing, it underlies a more densely populated portion of the USA than, say the Bakken Formation. For another thing, there is the very real concern that ground water resources could be (and are being) polluted by fracking. You should be able to discuss the various potential mechanisms for drinking water aquifer pollution (and other issues) including leakage of natural gas (NG) and fracking fluid (FF) where the borehole intersects the aquifer, induced fractures that propagate all of the way from the shale layer into the aquifer thereby allowing for the movement of NG and/or FF into the aquifer, induced fractures that propagate into areas of existing fractures that then extend into the aquifer allowing for the movement of NG and/or FF into the aquifer, disposal of FF (treatment or injection), spillage of FF, and earthquakes from fracking or from FF injection in terms of their relative potential, probability, and severity as well as the mechanisms for preventing or mitigating problems related to fracking.

Slides shown in lecture are available on Sakai. Wednesday, we will finish with our discussion of the fracking controversy and move on to a look at the homework. Your reading assignmhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifent for Wednesday is What the Frack? Is there really 100 years’ worth of natural gas beneath the United States? by Chris Nelder posted Thursday, Dec. 29, 2011 on Slate online magazine.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Lecture 9 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. Fracking (short for hydraulic fracturing) is a technique that allows for the exploitation of petroleum reservoirs that would otherwise not be economically recoverable due to low permeability in the source or reservoir rock. Discussion of fracking in the MSM are usually associated with natural gas but is also used extensively in tight oil resources like the Bakken formation in ND.

2. Fracking generally involves the following steps:

a. drill to the depth of a horizontal or sub-horizontal, organic-rich source rock or tight (low-permeability) reservoir rock then drill horizontally (concordantly) through the middle of the source or reservoir rock layer.

b. seal the annulus of the well to prevent interaction between the relatively shallow water table and fluids in the relatively deep source rock layer.

c. use directed explosives to induce fracturing within the source rock

d. inject fracking fluid at extremely high pressures to expand the fractures in the source rock (enhanced permeability)

e. remove fracking fluid from the well leaving behind proppants (usually sand) to keep the cracks dilated once the pore fluid pressure returns to normal

f. collect natural gas as it flows out of the source rock and into the well pipe.

The link to the interactive animation, which I would encourage you to watch on your own can be found here.

2. The composition of fracking fluid is specific to the drilling company and, while the materials that are present are generally known there are laws that prevent companies from having to disclose the precise amounts of the chemicals present (trade secrets). The components of fracking fluid can be characterized as:

a. water (mostly),

b. proppants (sand is a good one),

c. lubricants, preservatives, and viscosity enhancers, and

d. anti-corrosive agents (because many of the lubricants, preservatives, and viscosity enhancers are corrosive.

3. Fracking fluid is not regulated as a hazardous waste at the federal level; this makes disposal much more convenient and inexpensive but also presents potential problems (more on this on Monday). Fracking fluid can be recycled (not reused) to some degree and is even re purposed as a road deicer in some areas. Recycling practices are on the rise in most areas and are largely (entirely?) voluntary.

4. According to the EIA AEO 2011 and the AEO 2012 Early Release Overview, natural gas production will increase substantially in in the next few decades and this increase will come from shale gas and tight gas- both of which require the fracking technique to be technical, energetic, and economic recoverable

5. Natural gas and oil form in similar ways from similar materials in similar geologic settings but once they come out of the ground, there are some important differences:

a. NG is cheap enough that, when it occurs in combination with an oil reserve, sometimes it is cheaper to dispose of the NG than to capture and sell it. The NG is disposed of through flaring. To my knowledge, no one burns waste oil on purpose.

b. NG is more difficult to transport by truck or boat (is has to be pressurized into a liquid) and so pipeline infrastructure is more important with NG than with oil

c. The difficulty of cheaply and practically transporting NG without pipeline infrastructure means that very little NG is imported to or exported from the USA; ~60% of oil consumed in the USA, on the other hand comes from imports.

Slides from lecture are on Sakai. I will be around this weekend to provide assistance with the homework assignment that is due on Monday. Your "reading" assignment for Monday is episode 440 (originally aired 07.08.2011) of the Public Radio International Documentary Show This American Life called "Game Changer" about fracking in PA. You can stream the program for free on any computer with an internet connection (or you can download it for $.99). If you would prefer to read instead of listening, the transcript cam be found here.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Lecture 8 Summary and Notes

Some important concepts for the day...

1. The term "resources" describes the entirety of some MSI (such as oil) in a defined area (such as an oil reservoir or a country) while the term "reserve" describes the fraction of the resources that are technically, energetically, and economically recoverable. The % of a resource that is designated as a reserve is fluid and can change with changes in price or available technology.

2. The EIA predicts that the share of liquid petroleum production from unconventional sources will at least double by 2035. The EIA is smoking crack if it thinks that crude oil will sell for $50/barrel in 2035.

3. Three factors are driving the increase in production from unconventional hydrocarbon resources:

a. declining availability of hydrocarbons from conventional sources

b. increasing price of petroleum

c. advancements in technology that allow for more effective and/or cheaper exploitation of unconventional petroleum reserves.

4. The cost of production for petroleum from unconventional sources is substantially higher than the cost of production for petroleum from conventional sources; this means that petroleum from many unconventional sources is uneconomic at moderate to low crude oil prices.

5. Some of the technological improvements that have allowed for the exploitation of unconventional sources of petroleum are:

a. enhanced recovery (steamflooding (injection of hot water) and CO2 injection)

b. directional drilling (aka horizontal drilling)

c. hydraulic fracturing

You should be able to describe how steamflooding and CO2 injection methods work, why they are used, as well as any potential problems. You should also be able to describe why directional drilling is an important technological advancement in the exploitation of certain types of petroleum reserves.

6. So far, we have discussed domestic sources of unconventional petroleum from Kern County, CA, the Bakken Formation in and around ND, and the oil shale of the Green River Formation (WY, UT, and CO). You should be able to describe the factors that have prevented these systems from being conventional petroleum reserves.

Slides from today's lecture are on Sakai. Tomorrow, we will continue our discussion of unconventional petroleum with a look and shale gas and fracking; the reading for tomorrow can be found here.

Reading assignment for Friday

Your reading assignment for Friday will be Wastewater Recycling No Cure-All in Gas Process, an article in the New York Time's "Drilling Down" series on fracking by Ian Urbina and Like Fracking? You'll Love 'Super Fracking': Oil service companies roll out new technologies to break up more earth more cheaply, an article in Bloomberg Businessweek by David Wethe.

I will have a lecture summary for Wednesday written by Thursday morning.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Google my maps for GEOL 197

I have started a google map (shown below) with some of the locations that we have discussed in in lecture and that are highlighted in the reading. I will keep this map updated throughout the semester and will (try to) refer to it in the lecture summaries each time that I add a new location.


View GEOL 197 Winter 2012 Map in a larger map

Monday, January 23, 2012

Lecture 7 Summary and Notes

Important concepts for the day...

1. Crude oil (mostly) contains the following groups of hydrocarbons (hydrocarbons are organic compounds that contain carbon and hydrogen):

a. alkanes: 15-60% (average30%)- simple or branched chains with all singe C-C bonds- aka parafins

b. cylcoalkanes: 30-60% (average 49%)-like alkanes where the rings are closed into rings- aka naphthenes

c. aromatic hydrocarbons: 3-30% (average 15%)- contain a benzene ring (6 carbon ring with three single bonds and three double bonds)- mostly BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene)- aka aromatics

d. asphaltics: 0-10% (average 6%)- large (high molecular mass), complex, high-viscosity compounds

2. Most petroleum products are a mixture of several different hydrocarbons. For instance, gasoline (the stuff that you buy at the pump) is a mixture of ~500 compounds containing (mostly) 30-50% alkanes (mostly heptane and octane), 20-30% cyclcoalkanes (like cyclopentane), and 20-30% aromatics (BTEX compounds). Since gasoline is dominated by short chains and aromatics, it is a low-viscosity liquid at surface pressure and temperature

3. In general, as hydrocarbons get longer and/or more complex, their physical properties change (shorter chains have lower boiling points and lower viscosities and longer chains have higher boiling points and higher viscosities

4. Oil refineries use a fractional distillation column to fractionate crude oil into a variety of useful (ei strategically important) materials. The fractional distillation column takes advantage of the different boiling points for different compounds to separate compounds according to the length of the carbon chain.

5. After fractionation, modern refineries can alter the proportions of the different fractions in response market consumption patterns. Since natural gas (1-4 carbon chains), gasoline (7-11 carbon chains), and diesel/heating oil/jet fuel (8-21 carbon chains) are most widely consumed (and thus most valuable), longer hydrocarbons can be cracked (by a cracking unit) and shorter hydrocarbons can be unified (by a reformer unit) to produce more widely consumed compounds from less widely consumed ones.

6. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) is the office of the US federal government that is tasked with collecting and communicating data about energy production and consumption in the USA and (sometimes) abroad.

7. Unconventional petroleum reserves are petroleum reserves that, for some reason or another, are different than conventional petroleum reserves. Unconventional petroleum reserves can be broadly divided into two categories: high viscosity reserves ("heavy crude", "tar sands") and oil shale (or gas shale). In general, high viscosity reserves form like conventional petroleum reserves but are subsequently biodegraded when bacteria come in and preferentially eat the shorter hydrocarbon chains resulting in an increase in the viscosity of the remaining liquid.

8. Three of the ten most productive oilfields in the USA (using 2006 EIA data) are in the southern San Joaquin Basin (just north of Los Angeles). The petroleum reserves discussed in our reading for today (The Colonization of Kern County) are notably high in viscosity.

Slides shown in lecture today are available on Sakai. Wednesday, we will continue our discussion of unconventional petroleum reserves. Your reading assignment for Wednesday is North Dakota's Oil Boom is a Blessing and a Curse: The state's oil boom is bringing unmatched growth and unanticipated problems, an article in the August 2011 issue of Governing Magazine by Ryan Holeywell.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Lecture 6 Summary and Notes

Important concepts for the day:

1. Petroleum reserviors are so rare because:

a. out of all of the organisms that live (and die) most decompose

b. out of all of the sedimentary rocks that form, <1% are "organic rich" = >5% organic material

c. out of all of the organic rich potential source rock that forms, not all is going to "make it to the kitchen" be buried to the depths (and heat) required for the formation of oil and gas)

d. out of all of the oil and gas that forms, <10% is trapped in reservoirs

e. ...

2. Seismic imaging is the "workhorse" of petroleum exploration. Seismic imaging allows us to see layers and structures within the Earth. Layers are "visible" in seismic imaging when one layer propagates seismic waves at a different speed than another; the wave is reflected and refracted at this boundary and this is indicated by a darker line on the seismic image.
3. The history of the seismic profile for our homework assignment is as follows:

a. deposition of horizontal, laterally continuous sheets of sedimentary strata (limestone then layered organic-rich shale, then coarse-grained sandstone, then well-cemented mudstone, then massive sandstone, then layered sandstone)

b. differential stress from a tectonic event folded the existing layers into an anticline fold

c. the top of this fold was eroded.

d. deposition of horizontal, laterally continuous sheets of sedimentary strata (conglomerate, then layered sandstone, then layered siltstone) occurred over top of the eroded anticline.

4. Divisions within the oil industry are described as being "upstream" or "downstream" such that:

upstream (aka E&P sector) involves exploration (finding oil) and production (drilling and operating wells)

midstream involves getting the oil from the oilfield to the refinery and

downstream involves refining, selling, and distributing the oil

5. The term "crude oil" describes oil as it is after being pumped out of the ground; crude oil from different oil fields can have a different composition. "Average" crude oil composition is mostly C with some H and trace S, N ,O< metals and salts. Kerogen from different source material (algae vs. zoooplankton and phytoplankton vs. land plants) will have different compositions with regard to H, C, and O. As petroleum matures from kerogen to oil to gas to graphite, its carbon content increases.

6. Most refineries are big and the biggest are, um, really big.

Slides shown in lecture today are available on Sakai. Monday, we will continue with our discussion of oil refineries and the organic chemistry of petroleum and begin our discussion of unconventional petroleum reserves. Your reading assignment for Monday is The Colonization of Kern County by Jeremy Miller.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Lecture 5 Summary and Notes

Important concepts/questions for the day...

1. Oil comes from organic rich source material - mostly marine phytoplankton. What area are best suited for the growth and preservation of the organic material?

2. How has biological evolution and the position of the continents throughout geologic history resulted in highly variable rates of coal organic-rich source material for oil?

3. In a conventional petroleum reservoir, what are the steps that are required after the deposition of the organic-rich source material?

3a. What happens during "maturation" and what the the physical conditions during which maturation occurs?

3b. What are the ideal properties of rocks that would serve as petroleum migration pathways, reservoirs, and cap rocks?

Lecture slides are on Sakai. Friday we will continue our discussion of petroleum reserves and spend some time with structural traps before moving on to petroleum refining.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Lecture 4 Summary and Notes

Important concepts for the day...

1. Metamorphic rocks rocks are, by definition, rocks in which mineralogical changes have occurred in response to changes in pressure, temperature, or transient fluids. Pressure and temperature increase together with increasing depth and the temperature range at which metamorphic rocks form varies from either 150 or 200 degrees Celsius (depending on the author) to between 700 and 1400 degrees Celsius (depending on the rock type present and the pressure). Below the arbitrary 150 or 200 degrees Celsius, reactions and their resultant minerals and rocks are considered to be sedimentary (diagenetic) and above 700 degrees, rocks start to melt. The amount (high vs. low) of pressure is important as is the nature of that pressure (lithostatic vs. differential) since rocks that are deformed in the presence of differential pressure (sigma 1 >> sigma 2 > sigma 3) develop foliation (a planar arrangement of the minerals in 3-D space).

2. Most of the time when metamorphic rocks are discussed, we envision a system that is closed at the handsample (sub-meter) scale. An important consideration for metamorphic processes that concentrate MSI is that water-rich (hydrothermal) fluids can import and export elements to or from a system in a process that is called metasomatism.

3. Continental drift is the concept that the Earth's continents have moved (and are moving) throughout Earth's history both with respect to one another and with respect to the underlying mantle asthenosphere.

4. This movement of continents is achieved through plate tectonics. Plate tectonics is commonly referred to as the "unifying theory of geology" because it is useful in explaining so many geologic phenomena.

5. Plate boundaries are defined by the relative motion between plates (convergent, divergent, or transform) and the "tectonic setting" of an area describes a location with respect to a plate and its boundaries.

6. In order to be able to predict the distribution of some types of MSI (particularly fossil fuels) at the global level, it is important to understand not only the present tectonic setting of an area and the modern processes that are affecting it but also how the tectonic setting and location of the area has changed throughout time.

Wednesday, we will begin our discussion with a look at how the position of the continents has changed through Earth's history before moving onto how hydrocarbon reservoirs form. Slides from lecture today are posted on the course Sakai site. The readings assignments for Wednesday can be found in Friday's lecture summary.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Lecture 3 Summary and Notes

Important concepts for the day...

1. Igneous rocks form when melted rocks cool and crystallize. This is simple enough except that, when rocks melt and crystallize, different chemical species within the rock melt or crystallize at different temperatures and so the very process of melting or crystallizing changes the residual liquid and subsequent crystallization/melting products.

2. On the melting end of things, almost all melt comes from the upper mantle where the pressure, temperature, or composition has deviated from "normal" as some given location. The upper mantle is composed of an ultramafic rock called a 4-phase lherzolite and when this melts, the result is not melted lherzolite- it is of a mafic (basaltic) composition.

3. On the crystallization side of things, a familiarly with the research of N. L. Bowen is particularly useful... In a basaltic melt at surface pressure, olivine is the first silicate mineral to crystallize and contains considerably more Mg and considerably less Si than the melt. As a result, the melt will become progressively depleted in Mg and relatively enriched in all of the other major elements (such as Si). The remaining melt will eventually evolve to the point that olivine is no longer the thermodynamically most stable mineral and orthopyroxene (OPX) will begin to crystallize instead. As a result of this compositional melt evolution, igneous rocks or any composition (ultrmafic, mafic, intermediate, and felsic) can form from basaltic melt.

4. Elements that tend to enter the solid (mineral phase) during crystallization are called "compatible" and those that tend to remain in the liquid are called "incompatible." The ratio of the abundance of an element in the melt vs. its abundance in the crystallizing mineral is called the partition coefficient. For instance, the element nickle (Ni) is highly compatible in the mineral olivine (the partition coefficient = 10) and the element aluminum is incompatible (partition coefficient = 0.01). This means that a melt with 0.1% Ni and 10% Al will crystallize with 1% Ni and 0.1% Al. We will revisit these concepts later when discussing ore body formation.

5. The igneous rock types that are important four our discussions include granite, pegmatite, basalt, and peridotite. You should be able to loosely describe these rocks based on their grain size, elemental, and mineralogical composition.

6. Sedimentary rocks can be divided into clastic, chemical, biochemical, and organic based on how they formed. Clastic rocks are classified based on their grain size and there is no systematic mechanism for classification of the other sedimentary rocks

7. The sedimentary rock types that are important four our discussions include sandstone (clastic), shale (clastic), limestone (chemical and geochemical), rocksalt (chemical), rock gypsum (chemical), and coal (organic). You should be able to loosely describe these rocks based on their grain size, elemental, and mineralogical composition.

Your next treading assignments will be for Wednesday:

1. is an excerpt from the chapter of Stephen Marshak's other introductory physical geology textbook, Earth: Portrait of a Planet, 3rd edition on the formation of oil and gas reservoirs that is available as a .pdf on our Sakai website and the and,

2. is an article from the website "Stuff You Should Know" called "How Oil Refining Works" by Craig Freudenrich.

Please have both read by the beginning of class on Wednesday.

Slides from today's lecture are on Sakai. Monday, we will finish up with the rock cycle and introduce plate tectonics and sedimentary basins.